Russia's double-headed eagle

Guardian Unlimited

Jason Corcoran: Rather than reversing Putin's policies, Medvedev has only hinted at reform. Time will tell if he can step out of the shadows

Dmitry Medvedev was destined to be a lame duck leader when he was elected Russia's third president a year ago. His inauguration ushered in a ruling tandem with his mentor and predecessor Vladimir Putin seemingly shifting a gear to become prime minister. Putin, however, has so far done all of the steering while Medvedev has been along for the ride.

Russians have not been duped, judging by the latest opinion poll by the respected Levada Centre, which indicate only 12% believe Medvedev wields real power. Another 34% believe it lies with Putin, while 50% believe it is shared between them.

Buoyed by rising commodity prices, Putin's eight-year reign restored Russia's shattered economy, raised living standards for many and re-established Russia's standing internationally as a power-broker.

A tough act to follow. Unfortunately, events have not been kind to Medvedev; the equity market and economy have collapsed; a war with Georgia and a major gas dispute with Ukraine have soured relations with Europe; a currency crisis has rattled the public; and an oil price that rose steadily through his predecessors' two terms has tanked.

Medvedev's presidency has brought a change of tone but not a change in substance. His response to the January murders of a human rights lawyer, Stanislav Markelov, and the journalist Anastasia Baburova on a Moscow street were markedly more sympathetic than Putin's gruff response to the 2006 murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya.

Rather than reverse any of Putin's policies, Medvedev has hinted at reform of the judiciary and the political system. He has subtly criticised Putin's cabinet for its handling of the crisis but hasn't sacked anyone in the federal executive for their mishandling of the economy.

Russia's five-day war with neighbouring Georgia in August was arguably Medvedev's toughest assignment, but many doubt the extent of his involvement in the key decisions. It was Putin, not Medvedev, who appeared in a flak jacket among Russian troops after the outbreak of war, in which Russia quickly routed its southern neighbour.Medvedev had never won elected office before becoming president. He owes his dizzy rise in government and his old job as chairman of energy giant Gazprom to Putin. A former lawyer, Medvedev made a commitment to the rule of law and to stamp out "legal nihilism" a central tenet of his inauguration speech last year. A new trial commencing on Wednesday of jailed tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky is a chance to show his leadership credentials and whether he is committed to those promises.

Khodorkovsky, the former owner of oil giant Yukos was jailed for eight years in 2005 for fraud and tax evasion in a trial regarded widely as a vendetta by Putin, for his funding of rival political forces. If Khodorkovsky is convicted on new charges, Medvedev will be seen as suffering a setback in his campaign for the rule of law. If the former oligarch is acquitted, the ex-KGB hardliners surrounding Putin will be seen to have lost.

Russia's double-headed eagle is working as a tandem, albeit with one driver and a passenger, who is a spoke in Putin's wheel. Only time will tell whether Medvedev has the capacity to exercise his legs and turn direction.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/04/dmitri-medvedev-vladimir-putin

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